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gh-115727: Reduce confidence even on 100% predicted jumps#115748

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gvanrossum merged 3 commits intopython:mainfrom
gvanrossum:tweak-confidence
Feb 22, 2024
Merged

gh-115727: Reduce confidence even on 100% predicted jumps#115748
gvanrossum merged 3 commits intopython:mainfrom
gvanrossum:tweak-confidence

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@gvanrossum gvanrossum commented Feb 21, 2024

The theory is that even if we saw a jump go in the same direction the last 16 times we got there, we shouldn't be overly confident that it's still going to go the same way in the future. This PR makes it so that in the extreme cases, the confidence is multiplied by 0.9 instead of remaining unchanged. For unpredictable jumps, there is no difference (still 0.5). For somewhat predictable jumps, we interpolate.

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3 participants